Further gains in crude-oil prices would be negative for most Asian currencies, as the resulting drag on the global economy would hurt export-dependent nations while driving up their import costs, according to Nomura research released Friday
Assuming a worst-case scenario in which prices head to $150 a barrel for Nymex crude before easing, Nomura said the most vulnerable currencies were those of India, the Philippines, South Korea and, to a lesser extent, Thailand, since they have limited ability to keep their currencies stable through policy action
Taiwan and Singapore, also heavy oil importers, were less at risk as their central banks could engineer currency strength to help cushion against inflation, Nomura said
China was also seen as less risky, as authorities remain under pressure to allow more appreciation in the yuan currency, Nomura said, forecasting a 2% annual rate of appreciation in the Chinese unit's value against the U.S. dollar
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