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The mathematician of the Complutense University of Madrid, José-Vidal Ruiz Varela, argues that Europe must raise its borrowing limit, leaving its deflationary policy. Meanwhile, USA must correct debt and raise the interest rates. Raising the interest rates in the USA and dropping them in Europe, recovers the European domestic demand and EE.UU may return to invest in Europe, with a stronger dollar, without any problem, generating hundreds of thousands of Jobs

Curso Superior Especialización Mercados. e-mail : admin@fasesdelabolsa.net

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JPM: China local government stimulus ‘castles in the air’

The nearly 19 trillion yuan ($3 trillion) investment plans announced by Chinese city and provincial authorities since May may be nothing but “castles in the air,” say J.P. Morgan economists led by Haibin Zhu
In a rather strongly worded report, the analysts noted that Chinese economic growth is widely expected to drop below the 8% level for the slowest pace this century
But the 18 investment plans announced by local authorities since then will only have a moderate impact on the near-term growth outlook, and may not be as effective as the 4 trillion yuan stimulus Beijing announced in late 2008, they say
Here are the reasons in the analysts’ words:
One: “There has been no official endorsement of these projects by the central government.”
Two: “Note that the timing of these announcements coincides with the transition of leadership at the local level. The long-term orientation in part explains the large magnitude of the investment plans.”
Three: “Some announced projects are too ambitious to be feasible.”
And four: “Without significant easing in fiscal budget and [local government financing vehicle] loan policy, the available funding capacity of local governments can finance sufficient investment to provide a modest boost to growth, but won’t be able to drive a rebound in economic growth as was observed in 2009.”
– V. Phani Kumar
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