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Agenda Macro

Calendario económico en tiempo real proporcionado por Investing.com España.

sábado, 29 de marzo de 2014

Curva Confianza Consumidor USA Marzo


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Consumer sentiment lowest in four months

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WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — A gauge of consumer sentiment declined in March to the lowest level in four months, led by gloomier expectations, according to data released

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The consumer-sentiment gauge reached a final March reading of 80 — the lowest level since November — from a final February level of 81.6, according to a report form the University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters. A preliminary March reading pegged the level at 79.9.

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Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a final March sentiment reading of 81. For context, the sentiment gauge averaged 86.9 over the 12 months leading up to the start of the recession.

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Trends in sentiment levels help economists get a feeling for the direction of consumer spending, which is the backbone of the economy. Elsewhere Friday, the government reported that consumer spending picked up in February, growing at the fastest pace in three months.

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Consumers face a variety to factors that could influence sentiment. Some are concerned about international turmoil, such as the situation in Ukraine. There are also major issues much closer to home, including uneven jobs growth, gas prices and volatility in the stock market.

Consumers may also be concerned about sooner-than-expected monetary tightening

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“Since consumers have become accustomed to very low interest rates on loans, even small increases, which simply tempered demand in the past, could now have a much more pronounced impact on sales of homes and vehicles,” said Richard Curtin, the sentiment survey’s chief economist. “Consumers are more likely to postpone than to speed-up purchases in advance of expected increases in interest rates.”

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Indeed, a report earlier this week signaled that consumers became less likely in March to have plans to make certain major purchases. According to the Conference Board, the share of respondents with plans to purchase cars and homes declined this month, while the share with plans to buy appliances rose. UMich’s report agrees with those findings on home and car purchases.

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“The data suggest that people have changed how they evaluate interest rates on loans following the prolonged period of low interest rates,” the UMich report says. “Consumer spending is likely to respond much more strongly to what would have been considered a minor increase in interest rates in the past.”

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However, the Conference Board and UMich reports diverge on other details. The Conference Board’s overall gauge of consumer confidence rose this month to the highest level in more than six years, led entirely by rosier expectations, as a barometer of consumers’ views on the present situation ticked lower. Those results hint that consumers are hopeful about economic improvement, but didn’t actually see evidence of growth in March.

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Meanwhile, UMich’s gauge of consumer expectations fell in March, dropping to 70 from a February level of 72.7. And barometer of current conditions ticked up to 95.7 from 95.4.

The Conference Board’s gauge is more sensitive to the labor market, while the Michigan reading is more sensitive to financial markets.

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Índice de gestores de compra de Chicago 55,9 59,0 59,8

Índice de Negocios de Dallas Fed Mfg 4,9 2,5 0,3

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USD Ventas de Cadenas Comerciales (Semanalmente) 3,6% -1,5%

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USD Índices de Gestión de Compras de Manufacturas 55,5 55,9 55,5